blog
Do-who? Doha.
by Tricia
The Doha talks collapsed last week when India and China refused to buckle under US demands that they lower tariffs on manufactured goods in return for more favorable agricultural policies. The story didn't get a lot of play in American households -- let's face it, how much does the average American need to know about Doha? -- but to me, the point was less the specifics of the trade disagreement than the fact that India and China were willing and able to flex their growing global muscle in an international forum.
It feels like it was a particularly rough week for once flagship American businesses -- if the ongoing mortgage crisis and the again-record-setting-low-profits for GM and Ford weren't bad enough, US Airways announced today that they'd stop giving out water on their flights -- they're going to charge for it, bottled or not. This was the final straw in moving my focus off US businesses and onto a more global landscape.
I've developed a four-pronged strategy for fighting off total despondency over the American economy.
The first thing is, I'm turning my attention to my new favorite sector, emerging markets infrastructure. I've always been fascinated by things that make other things go, to put it simply, and the ongoing urbanization boom in the developing world calls for some $22 trillion dollars in infrastructure spending in the next decade -- transportation, logistics, communication, and materials.
Second, I'm coming up with imaginative scenarios as to how the need for this investment will dovetail (and it will) with the $10 trillion or so in sovereign wealth funds looking for a place to grow.
Third, I concentrate on global trade numbers and capital flows to remind me that the world is a complex, vibrant place full of interesting and surprising opportunities: Global trade volume is up from $8 trillion just five years ago to $14 trillion this year. UNCTAD says FDI is up 25% since 2002. As long as these trends continue, there's velocity and momentum in global finance.
Fourth, and my personal favorite, I've declared a moratorium on the front pages. Now I just skip straight to the Sports section, where the Yankees are still in the fight. How long is the moratorium going on for? Check back in October.